Klappentext

A catastrophic phenomenon should not be considered a sudden and causeless event, but as a process whose characteristics are continuously changing throughout the entire previous period. This process manifests itself in the form of a trajectory of changes in time of the controlled parameter. This trajectory contains the information necessary for making decisions, both about the current degree of criticality of the system s state and about the moment it reaches its limit state.

This monograph discusses the method of searching for such a moment for a controlled system. The methodology consists of two complementary and therefore mutually validating forecasting methods. The first method analyzes the trend of a time series compiled from the results of monitoring the behavior of a controlled object, and the second method analyzes the periodic component, which together with the trend forms the original time series.

The monograph considers the following processes as such processes:

wear of the cutting tool, leading to defects in the workpiece;

development of a manufacturing defect leading to an accident under operating conditions or catastrophe of products that differ in the volume of their production;

preparation for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.